Only generals stand to gain from an Indo-Pak war

There is much tension in the air since the Pakistani cross-border raid at the Line of Control (LoC) killed two Indian soldiers. Media is full of emotionally-charged statements.

A bunch of news anchors have literally declared war on Pakistan and calls from the likes of Sushma Swaraj to bring “10 Pakistani heads” only add to the existing tensions.

Calls by a section of media for surgical strikes and war make it sound like a cakewalk. Pakistan military is no pushover and is competent enough to give us a bloody nose if any hastily-planned cross-border adventure is initiated.

Their forces are well-entrenched and are trained to stave off attacks from its eastern neighbour. American military aid in return for support role in the ‘war on terror’ has added some lethal firepower to Pakistan’s forces — not to mention the massive supply of military hardware it keeps receiving from China.

There is no doubt that Indian armed forces enjoy numerical superiority and possess better equipment. However, there is no guarantee of keeping the battles theatre-specific and short of the threshold that would provoke use of nuclear weapons.

More than anyone else (even more that news anchors who deliver what ‘THE NATION WANTS TO KNOW’ at top decibel) it is the generals of India and Pakistan who desperately need a war.

The image of Pakistan’s military has taken a serious beating in the last few years. An American SEAL team sneaked into their territory and bumped of Osama bin Laden and waltzed out before GHQ bosses in Rawalpindi could bat an eyelid. CIA drones operate in Pakistani airspace with impunity. Death of civilians when drone strikes go wrong has created a strong public resentment against the government and the ‘incompetent’ military.

Several incidents of military bases being targeted with ease by militants have caused the security establishment to lose their face. The military is also losing hundreds of soldiers in battles with Islamic militants — a situation into which it was arm-twisted by Uncle Sam. They are desperate for a diversion; something that would repose the faith of public in them as defenders of Pakistan; and nothing like a war to get this done.

Their Indian counterparts are much better off in terms of internal security. However, the uniform has lost much sheen after the Kargil conflict — thanks to scams involving high-ranking officials. From corruption in supply of rations to illegal sale of military land, a series of scams have seen generals being indicted and cashiered.

The birth certificate controversy involving the previous army chief saw some serious lows in civilian-military relations. General VK Singh’s outbursts about the shabby state of India’s military preparedness, quality of ammunition (and lack of it) and offer of bribes have caused the military’s image to hit a nadir. Therefore, the tough talk and pressure for cross-border strikes are only natural.

The LoC ceasefire that has been in place from 2003 has survived relatively unscathed despite several attempts by hawks among state and non-state actors on both sides of the border.

This has helped us divert resources for development and allowed us to stand tall when the rest of the world faced recession. It also allowed security forces to deploy more effectively and combat militancy in disturbed areas. A war would change all of this.

The sanctity of our borders must be safeguarded through appropriate mechanisms at each level. A local incident should not be allowed to hijack our national agenda and push the countries into a war that they can’t afford to fight.

(This article was published as the editorial column in Postnoon on January 16, 2013.)

Uncle Sam roars at terror, India purrs

The US announcement of $10 million bounty on Lashkar-e-Taiba chief Hafeez Sayeed has sent the entire Indian government, security and diplomatic circles into an applause overdrive. Little time was lost in appreciating the US gesture while reiterating New Delhi’s demand to Pakistan to bring the mastermind of 26/11 attacks to justice.
However, India’s reaction and subsequent rhetoric from various quarters resembles a kitten baring its claws in the shadow of a roaring lion and expecting to generate equal amount of awe.
Global diplomatic circles and definitely Pakistan are not fooled by the Indian sabre rattling. India has an abysmal record of following up its threats of punitive action and retaliation.
This was last evident when Pakistani terrorists attacked the Parliament in 2001. India mounted its biggest ever mobilisation, termed Operation Parakram, threatening to react with force if Pakistan did not rein in the terror operatives.
However, India chickened out in the face of Pakistani threat of first use of nuclear weapons. The massive operation which saw almost half-a-million troops and war equipment moved to forward offensive positions fizzled out — the balance sheet was thousands of crores wasted, several lives lost in accidents and loss of face in front of the international community.
More than a decade has passed and there has been no dearth of Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attacks on Indian soil. India has been liberally handing out warnings and threats at each occasion — hot pursuit a favourite phrase.
Even on this doctrine, the Indian establishment has not been able to speak in one voice. When a General talks about targeting militant camps across the border, the bureaucratic and political leadership openly declare their commitment to self-restraint.
The ultimate result of lack of political will to pursue the country’s national interests is that neither Pakistan nor the terrorists groups it nurtures take India seriously. And we have an inglorious legacy of letting every terrorist group to slaughter and walk away with impunity.
The chiefs of all Pakistan-based terrorist outfits have been travelling all over Middle East raising funds and the super-secretive RAW’s operatives have not even plucked a hair of any one of them.
Indian public could watch only with helplessness when Dawood Ibrahim and his confidants, who engineered the 1993 Mumbai serial blasts, were seen LIVE on TV cheering during a Sharjah Cup match. This was at a time when Indian sleuths and international agencies such as the Interpol were following every procedure in the book to get him extradited (if they could locate him in the first place) for crimes committed in India.
No country allows terrorists to mess with it and walk away unscathed. After 9/11, the Americans launched a global war on terror and did not rest till Osama bin Laden was killed. The Russians, the French, the British and the Israelis go to any extent to seek and destroy the elements who threaten national security.
However, India is content with cumbersome procedures and strict adherence to international covenants, and that too in a complacent manner which would make the techniques of the 19th century Congress moderates look like militant nationalists.
After begging all over the world for information and extraditions, our result is always blank. India’s ‘most wanted’ criminals and terrorist operatives continue to ply their trade without any interruption. At times one can’t help but wonder if our government is waiting for god to punish them.
For all the touting of our military might and the elite special forces, we remain toothless by choice while the enemies of the country continue to bleed us through a thousand wounds.

(This article was published as the editorial column in Postnoon on April 4, 2012)