Cowering kitty, roaring dragon

The ghosts of 1962 are back. With China’s People’s Liberation Army entering and digging in almost 20 km inside Indian territory, our reaction shows that not much has changed despite in 50 years despite our tall claims of packing enough deterrent military punch.

If then it was a myopic Jawaharlal Nehru with his utopian ‘Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai’ trust in the aggressively expanding giant neighbour, now it is another statesman prime minister, Manmohan Singh, and his team who have been caught off guard by the Chinese military manoeuvre.

At the time of India’s second round of nuclear tests, the then defence minister George Fernandes had rather undiplomatically, but candidly, said that the nukes were aimed at the country’s most dangerous enemy — China.

With the establishment touting India’s nuclear arsenal and long range missiles, the public may feel the country has enough capability to stop any Chinese adventurism. However, even a quick scan of last decade’s news reports on military preparedness would show that such an impression is merely an illusion.

The armed forces are woefully short of officers and low on morale due to unending line of massive corruption cases involving top level officers. The army is under-equipped and lacks modern artillery pieces and equipment for high-altitude warfare. If former army chief VK Singh’s letter to the government is anything to go by, there isn’t enough ammunition to fight a war.

The navy too doesn’t fare much better. Half of its ageing submarine fleet is always under repair and the relic of an aircraft carrier is virtually kept afloat by faith — on rare occasions when it hits the blue waters between ‘refurbishments, upgrades, repairs and improvements'.

Though Su-30 MKIs and Jaguars add some punch to the air force, lack of infrastructure and adequately protected bases near the border reduce them to defensive roles. The Chinese side is well connected by high-quality road networks, and their air-defence capabilities are nearly impenetrable to the rest of the fleet.

So, with military action guaranteed to deliver another round of humiliation, India is at an unenviable position where it will have to lap up whatever breadcrumbs the Chinese will throw at it and walk away.

What is deplorable is that successive governments and military bosses have dragged their feet on achieving minimum deterrence capability and 50 years after the humiliation of 1962, we are pretty much in the same position.

The reactions of our government are palpably weak-willed, divided and confused — and it is obvious to any keen observer that it is dealing from a position of weakness and hoping for a face-saver rather than problem-solver.

In China, a new leadership has taken over. They would use this crisis to improve their domestic standing and to curry favour with the military. This incursion tactic is also a not-so-subtle message to India that its newfound bonhomie with China’s ‘hostile’ neighbours such as Vietnam, South Korea, Philippines and Japan, and of course, the United States, will have serious repercussions.

Tiger can take on the dragon. However, what we have now is a kitten, whose feeding bowl says ‘Tiger’. Tough luck boys, try better next time.

(This article was published as the editorial column in Postnoon on May 1, 2013.)