Gadkari’s exit: Blow to BJP, boost for Modi

Every effort of embattled BJP chief Nitin Gadkari to wiggle out of the Purti quagmire has backfired and the proverbial final nail on the coffin was stuck by the I-T raids on the company stakeholders’ offices. As the negative publicity brought by its appointee became too big to be pushed under the carpet, even the all powerful RSS could not help him.
Rajnath Singh’s return could not be more spectacular. Gadkari’s term at the helm was a disaster. Revolt after revolt broke out in the party’s state units — its Karnataka situation is the worst scenario.

It was not long ago that the party’s national leadership was forced to kneel down before the Bellary brothers and revoke all disciplinary actions against them and their confidants. Late realisation of its mistake and the subsequent tough posturing before BS Yeddyurappa have resulted in its sole government in the south hanging to power by a wafer-thin majority. The Lingayat strongman enjoys considerable support among the party’s cadres and has the ability to spoil it for the saffron party.

And more than anyone else, one person stands to gain the most — Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

Modi’s chance of being the party’s prime ministerial candidate got a major boost with Gadkari out of the way. Modi and Gadkari had clashed several times in the past with the pracharak CM skipping the party’s national executive meetings in protest.

The harbinger of Gadkari’s dwindling elbow room was the May conclave where the party body had to drop Modi-baiter and Gadkari loyalist Sanjay Joshi.

With an outspoken Hindutva hawk like Rajnath Singh at the helm of the party, Modi will look like a moderate (though he is anything but one). Singh’s elevation also spares Modi of worries about strengthening the party before laying siege to Delhi — the former has proven his mettle with excellent organisational skills during his previous stints.

Modi has also greatly benefitted from Rahul Gandhi’s elevation to the number two slot in the Congress. While junior’s tearjerker speech might have sent the nation reaching for tissue paper boxes, the ‘anointment’ has effectively ruled out the possibility of any leader of calibre rising to the top in near future.

Every time Rahul has tried to take on Modi politically, his rhetoric failed to scratch Modi’s image, let alone dent it. Sonia’s last best shot — maut ka saudagar (merchant of death) — boomeranged and Modi emerged stronger than ever. The recent state elections underscored the Gujarat’s CM’s upper hand in this unequal fight.

Modi’s success has been in forcing his most vehement critics to come out with praise for him through good governance. Congress leaders, civil society activists and even leading Muslim figures have turned fans.

With booming business opportunities in Gujarat proving to be too lucrative to be ignored, most countries which blacklisted him in the wake of 2002 riots have quietly backtracked, the UK being the latest to join this list. In the US too, the number of voices calling for going soft on Modi is increasing by the day.

Though kin of victims of 2002 massacres in Gujarat continue to wage their legal battles, a series of clean chits by courts have boosted Modi’s credentials.

Gadkari was a weight that was dragging the BJP down (no pun intended), and freed of that, the main Opposition party is in a better position to put its house in order and pose a credible challenge to the ruling combine in the 2014 General Elections.

(This article was published as the editorial column in Postnoon on January 23, 2013.)

BJP must survive the battle within

The second innings of UPA has been nothing short of tumultuous, marred by massive scams in every sector from rural job schemes to military purchases.
When allies themselves are eyeing the jugular of the Centre, relief comes from an unexpected quarters — a divided BJP that is struggling to keep its house in order.
The saffron party, which in the late ‘90s emerged as a credible alternative to the Congress that had ruled the country from Independence with the exception of a few years, is now forced to spend more attention in keeping the organisation intact than serving the role of an effective opposition.
The recent Assembly elections handed a couple of emphatic victories to the party. However, it was more the corruption and anti-incumbency factor that helped it in Goa, and in Punjab it was the bigger ally Shiromani Akali Dal that led the charge.
Though it managed to slightly better its performance in Uttar Pradesh, it still to an unenviable third position; inconsequential but definitely better than the Congress which was decimated.
Elsewhere in the country, nothing is working for the party. In Rajasthan, the party constantly faces revolt from senior leader and former chief minister Vasundhara Raje. In the latest episode, the party had to despatch its fire fighters to prevent the royal from walking out of the party with a substantial number of followers and MLAs.
The party’s national leadership has been having sleepless nights ever since it forced BS Yeddyurappa, who led the party to its first government in the south, to quit as chief minister owing to graft cases against him. BSY agreed to quit on condition that his pick Sadanada Gowda was made the CM.
However, the Lingayat strongman changed his mind soon and wanted to be reinstated — a demand the party leadership couldn’t concede to as it required a moral high ground to battle the Congress government at the Centre.
Ever since, it has been a war of nerves and words in Karnataka. BSY keeps threatening to quit from the party and form his own organisation and the leadership keeps shuttling between Delhi and Bangalore with varying combinations of carrots and sticks as the situation demands.
The Reddy brothers and their associate Sriramulu, who fell foul with the party after their role in illegal mining scam put the party on the defensive, have made a powerful comeback. The brothers proved their name is bigger than the party in Bellary by defeating the official BJP candidate in the bypolls.
As the foursome threatened a split, a shocked leadership had to placate them. However, what is happening in Karnataka is nothing compared to the challenge that is to emerge from Gujarat — the showcase state for the party.
Ever since RSS nominee Nitin Gadkari took the helm, Gujarat Chief Minister and a top prime minister candidate Narendra Modi hasn’t been the most co-operative. The bachelor swayam sevak CM is not happy with the way Gadkari is leading the party and has attacked his strategies in his meetings with the leadership. Gadkari’s response has been to play down the importance of Modi in the bigger picture.
The most recent example of the duo’s spat spilling out into public view was during the Assembly elections when Modi refused to campaign for the party in UP — and Gadkari entrusted the job to Modi’s arch rival Sanjay Joshi. The chill has continued ever since.
With the party’s national executive meeting barely a month away, Modi has maintained a deafening silence on his attendance. A second term for Gadkari being the main agenda of the conclave, the former’s absence will be a thinly veiled banner of revolt.
No doubt the BJP generals are fully capable of leading the assault on Congress; the question is whether they can survive the civil strife within the party.
(This article was published as the editorial column in Postnoon on May 16, 2012)